This morning (September 6, 2022), a piece of news that “the number of Chinese air source heat pumps exported to Europe has increased dramatically” has become a hot search, making the “air source heat pump” based on green energy once again enter people’s vision, and at the same time raising the capital market’s expectations for its subsequent development.
Previously, affected by huge foreign subsidies and climate bills, relevant analysis agencies have focused on the export of energy-saving and green heating equipment. They believe that the “gold rush” triggered by the climate plan is accelerating into the renewable energy market. Under the goals of energy security and carbon reduction, the potential demand for heat pumps in Europe alone is as high as tens of millions, corresponding to a market size of nearly one trillion.
Air source heat pump-a feasible solution for clean heating
Heat pumps can be understood by analogy with water pumps, which is to convert low-level heat energy into usable high-level heat energy to save the use of coal, gas, oil, electricity, etc. Air source heat pump is one of them. It uses air as a heat source, transfers heat from outdoor air to indoor air in winter, and transfers indoor heat to outdoor in summer. It is also a relatively economical and mature way.
Moreover, air source heat pump has a wide range of applications. It can be used to replace pure electricity or gas to produce hot water, and can also be used to provide heat energy for indoor space, industrial and agricultural drying operations, etc. In actual applications, it is found that air source heat pumps are not easily affected by bad weather such as cloudy, rainy, snowy and winter nights. The utilization rate of primary energy of heating products is roughly twice that of coal-fired boilers and three times that of pure electric boilers. It is energy-saving, stable and reduces emissions.
Despite various unfavorable factors, the demand for air source heat pumps in my country in Europe is still very obvious, basically continuing the situation last year. In 2021, China exported about 2 million air source heat pumps to Europe. The industry is optimistic that the export volume of China’s air source heat pump products will exceed 10 million units in the future.
Coal to Electricity – The Development Path of Domestic Air Source Heat Pumps
In order to accelerate the replacement of coal, my country’s northern regions have vigorously promoted clean heating methods and carried out transformation projects such as “coal to gas” and “coal to electricity”. Institutional statistics show that in the actual process of coal to electricity, The penetration rate of air source heat pumps in air source heat pump factory is significantly higher than other forms such as energy storage electric heaters.. The high comprehensive benefits and large subsidies have even made it the mainstream choice in some regions.
For example, data from Beijing in 2016 showed that in the residential “coal to electricity” heating equipment market, heat pumps from the best air source heat pump manufacturers were clearly dominant, accounting for more than 75%, of which air source heat pumps accounted for more than 70%.
In the national market, with the promotion of coal to electricity in 2016-2017, the market size of air source heat pumps expanded rapidly to 17 billion yuan; in 2018, coal to electricity slowed down, and air source heat pumps also experienced a brief decline, and then rose again in 2021, with a market size of nearly 18 billion yuan, and the penetration rate further increased.
The industry believes that subsidies play a key role in increasing the penetration rate of air source heat pumps. Referring to the domestic “coal to electricity” process, the subsidy policies introduced in many foreign places (Europe’s subsidy for installing an air source heat pump can be up to 5,000 euros, implemented in batches) are also expected to alleviate consumers’ concerns about the high initial investment costs of air source heat pumps and accelerate the penetration rate of air source heat pumps in the local area.
